Why Everyone Is Chasing the Wrong Pokemon Set Right Now
In the fast-paced world of Pokémon collecting and investing, it is easy to get swept up in the whirlwind of the "next big thing." Having closely observed the market and customer sentiment for the past two years, I’ve noticed a fascinating and repetitive cycle. With almost every new expansion, the community reaches the same conclusions, often focusing so intently on the "chase" that they miss the true opportunities lying just beneath the surface.
Why Everyone Is Chasing the Wrong Pokemon Set Right Now
The Trap of the "Latest Set"
Currently, the market is completely consumed by Ascended Heroes. It is undoubtedly a fantastic set, featuring high-demand cards like Pikachu and Gengar, as well as the excitement of "god packs". This hype has driven prices for Elite Trainer Boxes (ETBs) to nearly three times their MSRP in some places.
Despite these inflated prices, buyers continue to flood the market, filling their closets with stock. While the potential of a good set is clear, this total focus on the newest product often blinds even seasoned hobbyists to the value of what came before.
Lessons from the Past: Prismatic vs. 151
To understand today’s market, we only need to look back at last year. During the spring transition, the community was obsessed with Prismatic. At that time, many claimed it was the "worst time" to enter the hobby—a sentiment we are hearing again today.
While everyone was chasing Prismatic, they were ignoring 151 ETBs, which were readily available for around 150 euros. Fast forward one year, and those same boxes are nearing 600 euros. Nothing changed about the cards themselves; people simply realized the set’s potential once the supply began to dry up. We are seeing a "perfect repeat" of this behavior right now.
The Danger of Flawed Metrics
One reason for this herd mentality is the use of misleading data. I’ve recently seen comparisons between Ascended Heroes and Prismatic based on PSA 10 card prices. This methodology is deeply flawed for several reasons:
- Grading Backlogs: PSA is currently facing massive backlogs, with wait times reaching five months.
- Population Growth: Because Ascended Heroes is new, very few cards have been graded. As more slabs return from PSA, the "population" of these cards will explode, which will likely impact prices.
- Confirmation Bias: Investors often cherry-pick facts to support the narrative that the newest set is the only one worth buying.
Where is the Real Value Today?
If you feel that current prices for the newest sets are irrational, it’s time to look deeper. While the crowd chases Ascended Heroes, other high-quality products are sitting at much more rational prices:
- Prismatic Evolution: Following reprints in the U.S. (and potentially Europe soon), prices have dropped. Yet, few people are talking about buying it now.
- Surging Sparks: Despite being a solid set, it is currently trading at prices lower than in December 2024.
- Sword & Shield Era: Older products still exist at prices that are very reasonable relative to their age and scarcity.
Final Thoughts
In this market, the most important ingredient is time. When you have to choose between a brand-new, hyped-up product and an older set with a proven track record that is currently being overlooked, the rational choice is often the one the "tourists" are ignoring.
What do you think? Are there products you see right now whose popularity is disproportionate to their actual potential? Let us know in the comments!